repeated a crime is more likely to repeat than someone who has only committed a crime once. On this view, those who engage in certain kinds of crimes, such as child molesters and rapists, are more likely to repeat because it is “in” their system. Unfortunately, both folk perception and legal analysis of future dangerousness are based on weak evidence, unfounded assumptions, or both. Consider sexual offenders. Their crime is intentional, frequently repeated, and aimed at innocent victims. Given that many sexual offenders repeat their offenses, it has the appearance of inevitability, of a process that is highly determined. Because many sexual offenders were abused as children, some experts conclude that we should blame their parents. Other experts believe that particular situations either promote or support sexual offenders, including the church and medical exam rooms. And yet other experts, including the psychiatrist Boris Schiffer, reveal brain differences among pedophiles, including especially the areas involved in reward and self-control. Together, these observations suggest that the combination of a deviant nature and toxic nurture have led to a more deterministic universe. In this universe, sexual offenses are inevitable or so highly probable that we should lock up offenders and post their crimes in every county’s registry, and if possible, as replacements for flamingo lawn art. If this assessment of sexual offenders is right, how should we think about responsibility, blame, and punishment. If sexual offenders can’t help themselves, how should we assign blame? How should we assign an appropriate level and form of punishment, if punishment is even appropriate? Studies of recidivism among sexual offenders generate rates as low as 15% and as high as 80%. These studies also reveal that recidivism rates differ for incest perpetrators, rapists, and child molesters. These numbers tell us that even child molesters don’t always repeat their crimes. They also tell us th