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HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_010612

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Closed at 902 (10 Mar 2016): Buy AUD/KRW, entry: 832, target: 920, stop: 859 (revised from 790) Closed at 38.25 (18 Apr 2016): Sell TRY/JPY, entry: 43.40, target: 36.15, stop: 45.25 Closed at 8.27: Sell USD/NOK spot 8.685, target: 8.27, stop-loss: 8.60 (revised from 9.00} New trades Rates: Mar17 FRA-OIS widener, entry: 6.25bp, target: 10bp, stop loss: 4bp (21 Sep 2016} * Despite recent tightening, richness of bonds vs OIS, upcoming TLTRO & corporate issuance point to renewed widening Existing open trades For a complete list of our open trade recommendations, as well as our trade recommendations closed over the last 12 months, please see: Global Rates and FX Weekly: Central banks still the only game in town 15 September 2016 Rates: Pay 5y5y forward 3s6s basis, entry: 11.3bp, target: 13.3bp, stop: 10.3bp (10 Aug 2016) * Bank hedging flows on the back of sharp pickup in corp issuance suggests the widening of 3s6s basis is structural. It also hedges any aggressive ECB easing in Sep Buy 6m30y ATMF+25bp/+50bp/+75 bp payer ladders for a net premium of €950k on €100m notional (or 3.3 bp) (20 Jul 2016) *30y rates are at risk from the ECB tomorrow, especially if tweaks to the capital key are flagged already Buy 3-year 3.5% ZC RPI inflation caps, entry: 26.0c; current 37.5c (21 Oct 2015) *Sterling vulnerability due to the Uk's large current account deficit makes being long inflation volatility attractive. Pairing this trade with a long-standing recommendation to be short 30-year UK breakevens is an attractive way to finance it. Closed at O (22 Jul 2016): Buy 167 Aug RXU6 call and buy 162 put, cost 118 cents (16 Jun 2016) Closed at 55bp (12 Jul 2016): OATei 2018/2027 flattener; entry: 78.5bp, target: 40bp; stop-loss: 100bp (11 Mar 2016) FX: Short EURUSD 6m 1.0740/1.1500 risk reversal, cost: O (off 1.1077 spot)(6 Jul 2016) *EUR downside risks are underpriced. We think the post-referendum risk rally is overdone and could be at risk. Potential shock

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