From: Terje Rod-Larsen Sent: Saturday, December 29, 2012 11:39 AM To: '[email protected]' Subject: Fw: Situation in the Middle East - FINAL Original Message From: Walter Kemp To: Terje Rod-Larsen Cc: Andrea Pfanzelter Sent: Thu Dec 2014:27:12 2012 =ubject: FW: Situation in the Middle East - FINAL The centre of gravity in the region is currently the Syrian crisis. Beyond =he civil war there is a regional war in a global context being fought on S=rian territory. In addition to the tragic and ongoing humanitarian crisis =ith now proably more than forty thousand dead and millions of refugees and=displaced, a new Great Game of geostrategic importance is being played out= On the one side there is a regional axis of allies going from Teheran throu=h Baghdad to Damascus and to Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the diplomatic pro=ection of Moscow and Beijing. On the other side there is a block of count=ies in full political and military confrontation with the axis, running fr=m Turkey through Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan and to =rance, United Kingdom and the United States. Both The Block and the Axis a=e providing financial resources and weaponry to respectively the rebels an= the regime. Hezbollah has fighters on the ground and there are daily shiprents of weapons and ammunition to the regime from Teheran through Baghdad.=On the other side weapons and money are flowing to different rebel groups =cross the borders from Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. A double chess game is =eing played; on the table and under the table. On the table western powers= Russia, China, Iran and the UN are calling for a diplomatic and political=solution, spearheaded by UN envoy Brahimi. Under the table a vicious milit=ry escalation is being conducted by both sides with close intelligence co-=peration at the highest level through the services of the Block. The calls=of the UN Security Council to demilitarise the conflict stands in stark an= inconsistent co