From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2015 1:39 AM To: [email protected]* Cc: Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer Subject: Fw: EOD Commodities Note - 11 Mar Classification: Public Lower oil vols From: Prateek Jain Sent: Wednesday, March 11, 2015 04:27 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 11 Mar OIL Well the API data was off again for the net US builds. DOE showed an overall build of 4.5m, with cushing building 2.3m. This is on the back of net reduction of 4m imports and higher refinery runs by 1.3m. Even though production grew 300kb last week, that's a net pull of 5m barrels. Given that last week inventories built 10m, build this week is in line overall. However, these numbers were quite bearish compared to genscape and API numbers, and thus WTI moved lower quickly after the data. In products, gasoline drew 0.2m and disty built.. Cushing inventories weighed heavily on WTI spreads and Apr/Dec spread came off almost 50c. Arb came off sharply after the DOE data and almost reversed the 2 day move. NSea window was strong yesterday indicating physical tightness and brent prompt spreads signal the same. Apr/May has now rallied to -30c, but May/June looks high at -88c. With the impending maintenance season and backed out barrels finding their way back in market, I am bearish this spread. In other news, Iraq is still struggling to clear the weather related backlog of Basrah light. Houston shipping channel is still closed from the vessel crash on Monday with no firm timeline of reopening. This could created another reduction in imports for this week. Oil Vols 115 WTI (/change) 46.25% -3.10% BRE (/change) M15 46.25% -2.10% 42.50% -3.00% Z15 35.20% -0.55% 34.00% -1.35% Z16 27.60% +0.20% 26.80% -0.75% EFTA_R1_01639862 EFTA02508759