From: Richard Kahn Sent: Thursday, August 18, 2016 4:12 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Fwd: Trade recommendation Sent from my iPhone =br>Begin forwarded message: =rom: "Ens, Amanda" Date: August 18, 2016 at 11:37:24 AM EDT =o: Richard Kahn c > Subject: Trade recommendation Rich, In the short to medium term, we believe the cyclical r=tation has only just begun. Our analysis of 4000 large long-only funds mana=ing 512tn shows that funds have removed their underweight in Emerging Marke=s and are now neutral relative to benchmark, in aggregate, for the first time in recent years. History sug=ests that when the Global Wave (our monitor that tracks global trends in ec=nomic activity) is rising, the best performing region is Emerging Markets, o= average, suggesting investors should continue to add to exposure to this cyclical region. Energy remains t=e second most underweight sector (behind Financials). US equities remain a b=g underweight. Looking a little further into year-end, an uncertaint= shock appears overdue and our 2000 year-end S&P 500 target incorporate= a high correction probability. The rally over the last six months was init=ally driven by an improvement in the growth outlook for which investors were not positioned. Elevated valuations= high expectations for growth and stimulus, an increase in bullish position=ng and volatility near post-crisis lows point to a complacent market ripe f=r disappointment. The growth surprises may not be so one-sided in the coming months, as a contentious el=ction season and Brexit could weigh on already weak corporate confidence an= spending, credit fundamentals remain weak and Fed hikes should come back i=to focus. Given low levels of volatility, we recommend consi=ering stock replacement through buying call options for upside exposure, su=h as with the AAPL call option recommendation I sent on Tuesday. EFTA_R1_01555589 EFTA02454060