Essays Future of Chemistry Assumptions: Taking Chemistry in New Directions** George M. Whitesides* Keywords: ftioorganic chemistry • genomics • medicinal chemistry philosophy of chemistry 3632 it When a distinguished but elderly scien- tist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong." Arthur C. Clarke The Temptations and Hazards of Predicting the Future Speculating about the future of sci- ence seems to be genetically encoded in scientists. We all do it. We also take it as an article of faith that serious predic- tions are almost always wrong. Is think- ing about the future an important thing to do. or just a diversion—like day- dreaming, or gardening, or playing the lottery? Why do we spend our time guessing about matters we believe we cannot predict? There arc at least five reasons. The first is utilitarian: to plan our work. Thinking about the future is a part of choosing research problems. We who make our living in science tell ourselves that we work for the satisfaction of solving problems and for the thrill of discovery; sociologists. less charitably, suggest that we do so to make a living and to get ahead professionally. The truth is probably a mixture of the two. Finding good problems—problems that Prof. G. M. Whitesides Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology Harvard University 12 Oxford Street Cambridge, MA 02138-2902 (USA) Pal: (+1)617.495.98S7 E-mail: gwhitesidesegmwgroup.harvard. edu (al I thank Michael Mayer, Mila Boncheva. and Barbara Whitesides for their sugges- tions and editorial help with this paper. polish a new facet of reality and that change the way some part of the world works—is both satisfying intellectually and rewarding professionally. The second reason is to feed our curiosity. We wonder about the world of the future. What neat widgets will make that world run? Which of our fantasies will