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EFTA02031536

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Jeffrey, Please find follow-up points below as promised; let us know if you have any questions. • Term structure of brent (backwardation) vs WTI (contango) more attractive to go long brent • Supply story more favorable for higher brent than WTI prices. Seaway pipeline likely not enough to balance the supply of WTI in Cushing • Supplies of WTI remain very healthy. North America retains its primary role in expanding non- OPEC supply, accounting for 82% of the total increase over the last two years. • Flows from the Keystone XL pipeline leading out of Cushing into the Gulf Coast have been delayed, but should start in late 2013 and allow an additional 700kb/d to leave Cushing. With Seaway currently pumping - 300kb/d from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, Keystone would represent a significant increase in pipeline capacity. • The Seaway pipeline in combination with the Keystone XI pipeline will help alleviate some of the supply building up in Cushing. However, we don't believe these projects will be sufficient to completely resolve the WTI supply overhang. • Brent supply/demand balances remain tight with OPEC production slowing and Chinese demand growing 12 month price target: $120/bbl Brent & $105/bbl WTI • Brent crude prices have softened from their February highs, as the global market balance eased on the back of seasonally weaker product demand, and a diminished pull on crude as refineries approach a short-term peak in planned maintenance. • Looking forward we expect a healthy appetite for crude as refineries return from maintenance, and as global growth continues to improve. Specifically, we see an ongoing recovery in the U.S., as well as continued structural demand growth from emerging markets. • While demand looks supportive, supplies are also seeing a slight improvement which will keep the market roughly balanced. North American shale production alone cannot compensate for the global growth in demand. However the return of volumes from Suda

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