From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen Sent Thur 2/7/2013 11:46:40 PM Subject IPI Middle East Update - February 7, 2013 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update February 7, 2013 Tunisia: Tunisia's transition suffered a terrible blow on February 6i° when leftist opposition alliance founder and head of the Democratic Patriots party Chokri Belaid was shot dead outside his home in Tunis. The event drew thousands of protestors to the streets, clamoring against the leading Islamist Ennanda party. The events heighten the Islamist-secular divide that has featured in the Tunisian transition and the Arab Spring at large. Tunisian Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali described the event as the "assassination of the Tunisian revolution" and promised to dissolve the Islamist-led government and form a technocrat government aimed at promoting national unity at this divisive time. &mot: The second anniversary of the Egyptian revolution on January 25i° was marked less by celebration than it was by violence, culminating in a week of unrest that took the lives of more than 50 people. The week was also marked by the imposition of a curfew, state of emergency, and large military deployment in the cities of Suez, Ismailliya, and Port Said. The events reflect the disillusionment of Egyptians, given the lack of progress on both political and economic fronts, while also revealing the state's limitations in restoring order and the rule of law to the streets. That the army—the country's most powerful institution—warned of the "collapse of the state" is a telling and serious message, conveying the institution's growing frustration with the political impasse. The recent violence has also generated serious economic losses and fuel shortages, and caused yet another delay with the much-needed IMF loan. It will be interesting to see how the recent violence—as well as the general malaise caused by economic woes—affects the Muslim Brotherhood's performance in the upcoming pa