From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen Sent Thur 3/22/2012 7:54:31 PM Subject IPI Middle East Update - March 22, 2012 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update March 22, 2012 Egypt: Egyptian politics is showing its dynamism, as presidential candidates come forward to position themselves for an expected two rounds of elections. The first round is scheduled for May 23-24, with the second to take place on June 16-17. The winner is expected to be announced by June 21. Amr Moussa and Abdel Moncim Abul Futuh are currently the most prominent candidates. Amr Moussa, a former Secretary-General of the Arab League and a long-serving member of the Mubarak Government (including as Foreign Minister), later became a detractor of the Mubarak regime. Abul Futuh, an Islamist, recently deserted the Muslim Brotherhood and, given his prominence, his departure has the potential to split the Muslim Brotherhood vote. Similarly, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, a lawyer and Islamic scholar, is the candidate favored by young Salafis, but lacking a broader base, his established party, Al Now, does not support his candidacy. Egyptian liberals hope a secular figure will prevail in the upcoming presidential elections. The Egyptian Army also prefers a secular choice, since it hopes it could more easily convince a secular president not to meddle in its affairs. Meanwhile, members of parliament, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, are increasingly challenging the military rulers by mounting no confidence motions against the current civilian government, which under an interim agreement, the parliament has the power to disband, though not to reappoint. In addition, a motion in the Egyptian Parliament to expel Israel's ambassador from the country and to cut the natural gas supply to Israel, while symbolic for now, since the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces would not enforce the measure, is an example of possible repercussions from the Palestinian-Israel conflict which will play a