Subject: Key themes & trades From: Uzair Ageel Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2014 08:07:10 -0400 To: Tazia Smith Cc: Nav Gupta Vinit Sahni Paul Morris Caroline Kitidis Hi Tazia, Here are some trades we're thinking about that Nav suggested you may wish to highlight to Jeffrey Epstein. Key themes: Divergence in monetary policy between the Fed & Bank of England on the one hand and ECB & Bank of Japan on the other Continued capital inflows into Asian countries where financial conditions are easing (eg, Japan) and/or structural reforms are being implemented (eg, India) US recovery - buying into dips as US anchors global growth EURUSD continues to break down -- if you're looking to reload: Trade: A ly EURUSD 1.25 put financed by selling the 1.30 call has zero net premium (spot ref: 1.2740) EURUSD has broken below 1.28 during the last 24 hours With US data continuing to firm, the market is recalibrating when the Fed will deliver hikes - earlier rather than later On the other hand, given the ECB's stated determination to spur inflation in the Eurozone, full-blown QE looks likely next year This chart shows the correlation between EURUSD and the spread between EUR and US interest rates (yellow) (Embedded image moved to file: pic10382.gif) Source: Bloomberg 25-Sep-2014 EURINR lower as a combined play on continued inflows into India and ECB activism: Trade: A 6m EURINR 78 put (at-the-money spot) financed by selling the call has zero net premium (spot ref: 77.95, forward: 80.50) With the Modi government showing decisiveness in pursuing its reform 83 EFTA01471137