5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet The Week Ahead' Hest of Europe 2, the USA • In the US, Fed chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee will be the key highlight for the week. In terms of data releases, it will be a relatively quiet week, with January retail sales being the focal point. Our US teem expects retail sales to improve 0.3% mom at the start of the year. Other releases include JOLTS opening, business inventory and wholesale inventory for December and consumer sentiment (prelim) for February. • In the UK, trade statistics, industrial production and construction output for December will be the key data to watch. An improvement in the oil balance dominated November trade data; we expect further slight reduction in the trade deficit in December. Industrial activity disappointed in November, and warmer-than-usual weather in December could mean further weakness; we expect IP to fall 0.3% mom in December. In GEE, prelim Q4-15 GDP will be released in Poland, Romania and Hungary. Key Data & Events Day Tim* IGMTIRalease DR Forecast Consensus Pmvious Mon 08.00 Czech Industrial production (Dec) (5.7%) 08.00 Czech Merchandise trade balance IDecl CZKI4.3bn 08.00 Czech Unemployment rate (Jan! 6.2%rate me 09.30 UK RAC Sales Like-For-Like Ye? (Jan) 0.10% 09.30 UK Trade balance non EU25 (Dec) -GEIP2.40bn -GBP2.46bn 09.30 UK Visible trade balance (Dec) -GBP10Abn -GBP10.6bn 11.00 US NFIB small business optimism (Jan) 94.5 96.2 15.00 US JOLTS opening (Dec) 6431 15.00 US Wholesale inventories (Dec) -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%12.2%) Wed 09.30 UK IP (Dec) -03%10.8%) -0.7%(0.8%) 09.30 UK Manufacturing production (Dec) 0.2%1.1.3%) -OA% (-1.2%) 19.00 US Treasury budget balance (Jan) -USD14.4bn Thu 13.30 UK RICS house pike balance Wan) 50% Fri 07.00 Romania GDP Iprelind (G4I (3.6%) 08.00 Hungary GDP (prelim)K4) (2.5%) (2.4%) 09.00 Poland GDP (prelim)