5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds. no storm yet IThe Week Ahead: Euro area • In the euro area, market focus will be on the advanced print of O4-15 GDP in the euro area, Germany and Italy. SIREN-Momentum continues to point to high 0.4% qoq for euro-area Q4 GDP. Surveys point to 0.5% while hard data are less optimistic. Our forecast for O4 GDP growth is more modest at 0.35% qoq. Hard data appear to justify our caution. We expect both German and Italian GDP to grow 0.3% qoq in Q4-15. • December Industrial production across euro-area countries will be the last set of 04-15 hard data before the respective GDP releases. Trade statistics (Dec) and CPI inflation (Jan) are scheduled for release in Germany. January inflation data is lined up for release in Spain as well. Also, euro-area finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels at the end of the week. key Data & Events Day Time (GMT) Release DB Forecast Consensus Previous Mon 07.00 German IP IDecl 0.5%1-D5%) 0.3% 0.1% 08.00 Spanish IP (Dec) 0.0% (4.2%1 11.00 Euro area OECD leading indicator 11)041 100.6 Tue 07.00 German Trade balance IDecl EUR20.6bn 07.00 German Current account balance (Dec) EUR24.7bn 07.00 German Exports 1Dec) 0.5% 0.4% 07.00 German Imports (Dec) -0.5% 1.6% 07.45 French Budget balance YID (Dec) -EUR82.8bn Wed 07.45 French IP (Dec) 4.9%12.8%) 07.45 French Manufacturing production IDecl 0.4%(2.8%1 09.00 Italian IP IDecl 0.2% -0.5% 10.9%) Fri 07.00 German GDP flash estimate 1041 0.3%11.4%1 0.3% 11.7%) 07.00 German CPI (Jan) -0.8%(0.5%) .0.8% (0.5%) 07.45 French Payroll employment - prelim 1041 10.2%l 08.00 Spanish CM (Jan) -1.9%I-0.3%1 08.00 Spanish HICP (Jan) -2.6% I-0.4%I 09.00 Italian GDP flash estimate (041 0.2%10.8%) 10.00 Euro area GDP flash estimate 1041 0.3% 0.3%11.6%1 10.00 Euro area IP IDecl 0.3%1-0.2%) .0.7%(7.1%) dbOttonder: For more forward-looking calendars of data and events, as well as various tools