Long or short, Larry Adam? Six markt,: ,...,sWs from our Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management in the Americas and Chief Investment Strategist for Deutsche AWM Americas Can you usefully quantify and qualify risks to portfolios? t0 Risks to portfolios can come from a number of different sources - from central-bank-policy surprises to geopolitical developments. Any assessment of such risks cannot be precise, in part because many risks are wholly unpredictable. But we still think that It is useful to look at the risks that we can foresee and then consider not just how likely an event is to occur but also the probable portfolio impact. Some risks may not seem particularly likely to materialize, but would be very disruptive if they did. These are the ones to watch and, if possible, prepare for. Are central-bank-policy surprises on this risk list? BESI There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty around central-bank monetary policy At the top level, this is focused on the "when" and "what" questions - e.g. the timing and extent of the forthcoming Fed rate-hiking cycle. But there are other dimensions to this uncertainty for example, around the management of market expectations of policy action. Skepticism may also increase about the effectiveness of QE. All this will maintain an environment where policy surprises good and bad - are possible and could have a major impact on portfolios. Can the likely impact of geopolitical events be overemphasized? ECU Geopolitical events -- often unforeseen will continue to hog the headlines. But it is always worth asking to what extent they will have an immediate impact on portfolios. In previous decades, their main impact has been via increased oil prices due to the threat of supply disruption. This transmission process may be less important now given new sources of oil supply. Of course, many geopolitical events - for example, the European refugee crisis may have a long-term impact on economi