1 Seven Signs co [Figure 25: The Seven Signs: cross asset class market signals co re F 'The Seven Signs' Cross Asset Oats Martel Signah Current Level Change vs 2 In Ago 4 Week Avg. Change vs 4 Wks Apo Level lye Ago Syr Avg. 20yr Avg. PCTL Risk Aver. Risk Aversion tel to Hist. Ret to Hist. Level Incremental Risk Aversion Strategic Safety Sale Criteda Interest Rates and Inflation High FIN Caution lOrt Treasury yield 2.04% *LI% 2.16% 0.01% 2.49% 2.35% 4.21% 3% 97% High Down Caution 2. 4% 10yr TIPS yield 0.61% 402% 0.64% 0.08% 0.5236 0.21% 1.77% 11% 89% High Down Caution 0.5%. 2% 10yr Treasury -LIPS Weal 1.43% 409% 1.52% -0.07% 1.97% 2.14% 2.44% 2% 2% Low Up Yes bet. 1 . 3% Syr Treasurnield 1.36% 409% 1.48% -0.04% 376% 1.32% 3.60% 4% 96% High Up Caution 1.5%. 3% 30yr Treasury yield 2.85% -0.09% 2.95% 0.10% 3.20% 3.35% 4.81% 2% 98% High Down Yes 2.5% - 4.5% red fund Rate 2015 End (Eutwes1 0.20% 0.00% 0.25% -0.05% 0.77% 0.25% 2.70% High Up Yes below 2.5% Fed fund Rate 2016 End (Nuns) 0.66% -0.05% 0.76% *16% 1.13% 0.26% 2.70% High Yes below 2.5% Duration Normal rot Neutral US TreasuryVied (wet POPP (1°-20 1.41% -0.04% 1.46% -0.01% 1.92% 1.94% 1.24% 66% 35% Normal Up Yes above 100bps US Treasury yield curve *ape (10-Syrl 0.68% -0.02% 0.68% 0.05% 0.73% 1.04% 0.61% 79% 21% Normal Down Caution above &kips Credit New Up Neutral Corporate IC Credit spreads (bps) 'manual 160.4 1.0 153.0 1.6 121.9 184.6 175.0 65% 65% Normal Up Yes below 203 Industrial 184.4 12.6 173.2 2.7 116.8 140.9 156.0 79% 79% High Up Yes below 200 IlnanOal spreads Over Ificlustrial -24.0 -4.2 -20.2 -1.1 5.1 43.7 19.1 31% 31% Normal Down Yes be/Ow 50 Corporate MY credit spreads (bps) 670.0 47.1 610.2 15.7 962.1 526.4 609.5 69% 69% Nonni Up No below 600 TED spreads (bps) 34.5 2.5 32.1 5.1 220 25