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the turn of the Dutch 10 year yield to go through it's all time low again. The Dutch series is where we have our longest history of any government bond market with data going back to 1517 spanning almost half a millennia. The graph is in the pdf today and further shows just how unique the current situation is. The level of uncertainty about how this all ends must by definition be very high given this. So as we start H2, Asian markets are trading with a stronger tone this morning helped by a solid start to the global manufacturing PMIs. The official Chinese manufacturing PHI printed at 51.0, in line with consensus and at a six month high. The final HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.7, slightly below the flash reading of 50.8, but this is also the highest print of the year. The PMIs for other Asian bellwethers including Indonesia and Taiwan were also up on a month-to-month basis. The Nikkei (+1.2%) is the clear outperformer today, on decent volumes and despite a drop in the Japanese Q2 tankan manufacturing index to 12 from 17 previously and 15 expected. The capex component of the Tankan survey was above expectations however (+7.4% vs 6.0%) expected, which is strongest rate of growth since 2007. This has helped USDJPY (+0.1%) today. Outside of Japan, activity has been subdued with Hong Kong markets shut for July 1st holidays. The Indonesian rupiah is poised to record its strongest three-day rally in about fourth months - spurred by comments last week from the Bank of Indonesia that the country's trade balance returned to surplus in May. The AUDUSD is also poised for a solid gain (+0.25%) after the RBA maintained its neutral tone in today's policy meeting. The last trading day of 1H14 failed to bring with it any volatility associated with month-end and half-end portfolio rebalancing. Indeed, yesterday's S&P 500 volumes were about half that compared to the last trading day of 1H13. Adding to that, the S&P 500 closed virtually unchang

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Independent research project. Not affiliated with the U.S. Department of Justice, FBI, any government agency, or Anthropic. All analytical text on this site is AI-generated (Claude, Anthropic) and iteratively fact-checked against source documents, but may contain errors. Verify all claims against linked EFTA sources before citing.
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