Subject: RE: Changing DB's view on GBP, turning very bearish [C] From: Paul Morris a> Date: Thu, 05 Nov 2015 21:14:24 -0500 To: Daniel Sabba Vahe Stepanian Cc: Stewart Oldfield Thanks Daniel, let's try to catch up soon and if you could collaborate on future trade ideas before they go out would be great. Original Message From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Thursday, November 05, 2015 01:25 PM Eastern Standard Time To: 'jeffrey E.' Cc: Paul Morris; Stewart Oldfield; Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer; 'Richard Kahn' Subject: Changing DB's view on GBP, turning very bearish [C] > Classification: Confidential Jeffrey — please see below. From: George Saravelos Sent: Thursday, November 05, 2015 11:27 AM Cc: Oliver Harvey Subject: Changing our view on GBP, turning very bearish From Oliver Harvey: Today's November BoE inflation report marked a fundamental departure from recent Bank of England communication on the prospects of policy tightening. First, the Bank explicitly validated dovish market repricing after the September period of risk aversion. The 2-year-ahead CPI forecast was essentially unchanged from August at just above 2%, but was based on a market yield curve implying the first rate hike in Q1 2017. Second, the risk to this forecast was seen as 'to the downside.' Third, the Bank talked up the impact of sterling strength on the CPI over the whole course of the forecast horizon, based on new work by bank staff. EFTA01402551