Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Buy North America United States Financial REITs (111 11 112 Medical Properties Trust Alert EN:Dengo re,ket MPW.N MPW UN NYS MPW Weak 3Q print at a top tenant drives MPW sell-off 2 November 2016 Forecast Change Price at 1 Nov 2016 (USO) Price Target 52-week range Vol ( CIA Research Analyst ADPT's weak :1O /:pc.,.->es several key issues related to the overall business Adeptus Health Inc (ADPT: DB not rated), MPW's 6th largest tenant at -5% of Vlad Fludnyl,kv revenue (pro-forma for post 2Q acquisitions) postponed yesterday morning's stock and likely the major contributor to MPW's -6.2% decline (RMZ -2.2%). Once the results were out, the shares dropped another -50% in after hours planned earnings release to aftermarket hours, driving an 11% sell-off in the trading as ADPT reported weak 3O results with several significant issues affecting the company, and announced an emergency infusion of capital by insiders. While some of the significant decline in EBITDA was tied to the transitional nature of ADPT's recent strategic shift, we were surprised by the weakened balance sheet as well as the liquidity issues caused by significant mismanagement of bill collections and the capital intensive nature of recent hospital openings. ADPT also cut their adjusted EBITDA guidance by -34% at the midpoint on lower-than-expected patient volumes in non-hospital outpatient markets, higher-than-expected cash outlays for its three recent hospital openings, and a substantial increase in days sales outstanding. Worst case scenario 5.:t8;ciest cio,,c013840 Li; 2017 FAD. dividend covered Assuming a worst case scenario in which Adeptus ceases to exist, we estimate a roughly 11% hit (-14c) to our current 2017 FAD estimate. Our downside estimate assumes a total loss of all in-place ADPT revenue ($8.2MM in 2O) and the elimination of all developments tied to ADPT. Importantly, the FAD payout ratio would still be a m