22 May 2015 US Equity Insights Many metrics suggest S&P valuation is full and dependent on low bond yields. S&P's 18 trailing PE and 17.3 forward PE are 12% and 22% above the averages since 1960. The median trailing PE of all S&P stocks is 18.7, 2 full points higher than its historic average. The index is entering 1997-2000 valuations ex. Tech. 'Figure 3: S&P 500 trailing PE since 1950 'Figure 4: S&P 500 forward PE since 1950 n t s• 1 y r 21 19 ss i)sssis i;ee lseefl11 11 Toryna pc AC PE • Sant DealtS el* Ma 0) 20 22 IA 12 10 0 0 It o cr, ,„-, I .... Isitsfeaslatilvilit Nil Imadmkad•II0C40191 Sea Deuced* ant Mgt —mi. we ...ow •ue {Figure 5: Median trailing PE of S&P 500 stocks 'Figure 6: PE of S&P ex Tech 28 • 26 24 22 - 2O • 12 10 in g l ii i § 1 9 s Marla, 210i 5 26 -, n• i FE r 161/ Rorsasn 2 /es I: Georg (WSJ —Veber valIng PE 019461600 Slab — SIP 500 Erring PE rode • 168 Sea Oases 0atan0 Bert ri Aa. • ra2.111•7.1.0 -J Ritallbt 2 win sak••••flepemio• —Trani PE USIP 500a 'ea - Meer / Sea Caustic Commee• Sent Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Payo 3 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0059406 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205590 EFTA01367793