From: US GIG <[email protected]> To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: JPM View 05.18.2012 Date: Fri, 18 May 2012 20:49:45 +0000 Attachments: JPM_View_O5.I8.2012-pdf.zip Inline-Images: image003.png J.P.Morgan The J.P. Morgan View O8A on Greek exit risk • Asset Allocation - With little policy 'ippon before lime 17 Greek elections. there is little supporting antra nil prices Cover maiming longs in risk • Economics — Data am tracking Q2 forecasts. but the recent fall Ul. equities offsets the impact of lower oil poets The( pushes grouili risk to the downside • Fixed Income— Stay flat duranon and hold EMU hedges • Equities — Take profit on Dax OW m Europe as nth of Awning bans is mime • Credit — Wt move underweight credit. and cover our remaining longs to the GMOSprxifoho Neardemt we look fa-relative value m CDS vs equity • Foreign exchange— We use a 1.22 EURUSD fau vAlue lot Junta. 50 50 odds of pm vs anti EMI/ results in the time 17 Greek elections • Commodities — This week's start-up of the Seaway pipeline benvers the es Midwest and Gulf Coast should help °anew the Brent-V.71 Spread • Risk markets all lurched down as one gbh week and safe government bonds and the dollar all rose as one, at markets positioned for Lehmankke coots. moans& emanating from Greek election oils Unfortunate's the lime 17 date of these debt= is still a month away. and Eno palmy 'oaken do not want to give the shop away even before the elections. for few of strengthenury the hands of those who are calling for a hard renegotiation with the Troika. That means link upside news over the month and nurkets being driven by pose honing on different post election scenarios with this outlook, and equines DM flat on the all. iniportuu 6.month lookback we need to neutralise remain- ing equity and credo longs • Economic news remains broadly neutral and are tracking our Q2 telecoms Q I GDP for both Japan and the Euxo area came in better than expected at 0% and 4.1%. respectiv