From: US GIG To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: Morgan Eye on the Market 2/29/2012: Goldilocks Date: Wed, 29 Feb 2012 17:50:57 +0000 Attachments: 02-29-2012_-_EOTM_-_Goldilocks.pdf Inline-Images: image002.png; image004.png; image006.png Leap Year Eye on the Market, February 29, 2012 Topics: Riding the central bank reflation machine; Q1 US economic data, and an offset to rising oil prices (nat gas/coal) CTRL-P. Many people weren't convinced, including yours truly, about what the first European Central Bank unlimited bank lending program (LTRO #1) could do for European economies and markets. While the former is an open question, the latter is not. So far, LTRO #1 has been a tremendous salve for global equities (see below). The calmness of the rally relative to what preceded it indicates that markets were waiting for Europe to stop falling down the stairs (think of LTRO as an ATM machine that spits out money from someone else's account and lends it to you for 3 years in unlimited amounts at 1%). Following LTRO #1, bond auctions have been well-bid, sovereign spreads rallied, banks prefunded 2012 and 2013 bond maturities, bank debt markets reopened, and the decline in US money market fund exposures to European banks finally ended. There's a long way to go, since Italy and Spain are only 20%-30% of their way to their 2012 funding goals and they are still in recession. But isn't the point of LTRO that Germany has capitulated and in 2012 at least, will pay the price [a] to prevent worst-case outcomes? There's no reason to believe that LTRO #2 will be the last one, if another is needed. Weimar Republic memories, MSCI World Equities Level 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1.150 1.100 1,050 1 Jul 18-Jul 4-Aug 21-Aug 7-Sep 24-Sep 11-Oct 28-Oct 14-Nov 1-Dec 18-Dec 4-Jan 21-Jan 7-Feb 24-Feb Source: Bbornberg. k is not posstle to invest directly in on index. *Average of historical w eeldy volatility. LTRO. Dec 21 Pre-LTRO volatility': 27% P