=0D-0A-0D=0ACJ=2EP=2E Morgan Logo]=0D-0A-0D=0AGlobal FX Strategy=0D-0A-OD= =OA =0D-0AGlobal FX Strategy 2012: Currencie= s during European recession & global stagnation=0D-0A-0D=0AClick here<https- ://mm=2Ejpmorgan=2Ecom/stp/t/c=2Edo?i=3D4E9D8-20D8&u=3Da_p*d_730472=2Epdf*h= _-1hc7311%0d%0a> for the full Note and disclosures-2E-0D-0A-0D-0A-0D-0A-0D- =0A2012 Outlook: Currencies during European recession & global stagnation (— John Normand)=0D-0A2012 presents a unique tension between an unprecedented = macro environment and very defensive investor positioning=2E The next 100 d= ays will be critical in avoiding a sovereign credit event and global recess= ion=2E Averting disaster and achieving stagnation should be sufficient to e= ase the dollar lower next year, but expect only a 2% trade-weighted decline= and another year of above-average volatility (12%-15% on VXY)=2E Global re= cession would probably deliver 8% strength in USD, so less than Lehman give= n existing USD longs-2E-0D-0A-0D-0AFive global macro themes and top trades = (Paul Meggyesi, John Normand, Matthias Bouquet)=0D-0ATop five trading theme= s and recommendations: (1) implementation risks around Europe are huge (EUR= /JPY put spreads , bullish USD/SEK fly); (2) desperate times demand despera— te action (short USD/JPY 1x2 put spreads, short GBP/JPY through seagulls, s= hort 6-mo EUR/CHF puts; (3) no winners in European cage match (3-mo range b- inaries in EUR/GBP and EUR/NOK); (4) some safe havens are safer than others= (long NOK/SEK); and (5) valuation re-asserts itself (short NZD/CAD)=2E—0D- =0A=0D=0APost-mortem on 2011 forecasts and trade recommendations (John Norm= and, Sunil Kavuri)=0D=0AForecast accuracy was better than the consensus for= Q1 to Q3, but was poor in Q4 when the dollar turned=2E On trade recommenda= tions, returns and success rates on options trades were the highest in four= years, whereas those on cash trades were average-2E-0D-0A-0D-0AFX Volatili= ty: Here to stay