From: US GIO To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market: The morning after (Italy) Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 19:47:54 +0000 Attachments: 11-14-I1_ EOTM - The moming_after.pdf lane -Images: image002.png; image004.png; image006.png; image008.png; image014.png Eye on the Market, November 14, 2011 Topics: Challenges facing a new Italian government; the IMF effect; and good news of the week (since there was some) The morning after. There's some enthusiasm about a new Italian government, but now the hard work begins. The tricky thing about structural reforms is that they are more easily accomplished when times are good, so you can spread the adjustment more slowly, and with counter-cyclical support from the private sector. The problem is, few countries do that. Italy is facing this challenge in spades: it ranks 123M out of 142 countries in terms of labor market efficiency (142=worst), and unfortunately, the labor market reforms Italy is considering are among the most growth-depressing reforms of all, in the short term. I found agreement on this point in meetings last week with some of Italy's largest industrialists. Italy needs to fix its labor markets... .....but that tends to come at a price in terms of near-term month Labor market efficiency Growth response to structural reforms 2011 Score, from bestto worst Cumulative percent change in real GDP per capita 5% uinrc 5.75 ' US 4% UK 5.25 • jpry 3% IRL BEL Pell- DE FR 2% 1% BR Katy 0% 3.75 SIOR .1% 3.25 • -2% -3% 2.75 Source: world Economic Forum Corroetitrvencee Repat(142 comby universe). Tax Reform Trade Reform Labor Reform 6 Years Source: International Monetary Fund. 0 3 9 Financial Reform 12 The multi-dimensional uncertainties are enormous. Will markets reward Italy for austerity decisions (if they are taken), and sit tight with their 1.9 trillion in Italian bonds, even as Italy's debt ratios rise further as a recession hits? Will Europe