Eye on the Market May 10. 2011 j.pmorgan Snakes and Ladders. A year ago, Europe announced a framework for providing bridge loans to tide countries over until reform, austerity and renewed growth would allow them to come back to the capital markets in 2012. In the case of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, this does not appear to be working. If anything, as shown on page 2, austerity without an exchange rate adjustment is strangling Greece. As a result, we now enter a complex end-game best explained using a modified version of the ancient Indian board game "Snakes and Ladders", applied to Greece. The game is complex, since the IMF appears focused on saving Greece, while European policymakers appear mostly focused on saving European banks (see charts on page 3). Rumors this morning about another IMF-led package of an additional 30-60 billion Euros for Greece (perhaps collateralized by utility privatization proceeds) may push the problem out a year or so, but the game theory remains the same, since Greece is nowhere Snakes and Ladders (cDlodKla Ka; ZKaAcc) all figures in Euros IL Return To 0' '' Private Debt Markets in 2012-2013 With departure of Dominique Strauss-Kahn from the IMF. the agency's resolve to implement the current troubled program may erode II 17 What about Spain, or Belgium? What if 35 bn is not enough to save Ireland's banks given 290 bn of European/UK bank exposure to Ireland? 16 k Greater schisms between IMF and EU country representatives, given their differing objectives (saving Euro banks vs savipg Greece) 9 At 130 bn of exposure (on 190 bn of collateral) through purchases and bans to Greek banks, ECB can no longer abide its monetary policy role abducted into fiscal support, refuses to lend more 8 Begin your journey back to solvency and debt sustainability 1 'Voluntary' exchange defers the problem to another day, avoids bank writedowns with the approval of EU regulators, but with no relief to Greece's