From: Vahe Stepanian To: "jeffrey E." <[email protected]> CC: Daniel Sabba , Ariane Dwyer , Paul Morris , Stewart Oldfield , Richard Kahn Subject: Turkey and CNH [C] Date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015 15:27:07 +0000 Attachments: DB Turkiye_Oct15.pdf Inline-Images: image001.png Classification: Confidential Jeffrey — we're following up our phone calls earlier this week with two trade ideas: 1) Buy Turkey 5y CDS — currently E —253 • It seems Turkey has rallied recently on the back of the broader macro EM rally and FOMC dovishness, although fundamentally not much has changed in Turkey • General elections are taking place this weekend, which have created increased tension within Turkey and continue to generate headlines • Recent opinion polls still point to another hung parliament (additional details in attached DB research piece) • Outright short EM positions have cleaned up extensively and we believe it makes sense to slowly build out those positions • Cheap funding has resulted in large rise in corporate debt in Turkey, some of which has been funded in foreign currency • Turkey foreign reserves amongst lowest of EM countries, second only to Ukraine • Last Price 1 253.332 T High on 09/29/15 327.000 -9- Average 222.237 I Low on 12/02/14 154.000 300 253.332 200 150 Dec Mar Jun Sep 2014 I 2015 CT URK1U5 Cumcy (TURKEY an USD SR SY D14) Daily 3COCT2014-3COCT201S Copyright 2015 Bloomberg Finance 30-Oct-2015 10:59:43 2) Revisiting CNH as we know you're generally bearish Asian currencies. EFTA01131636