From: "jeffrey E." <[email protected]> To: Vahe Stepanian Cc: Daniel Sabba , Ariane D Morris Stewart Oldfield Subject: Re: Turkey and CNH [C] Date: Mon, 02 Nov 2015 10:23:17 +0000 Inline-Images: image001.png er , Paul , Richard Kahn there was an election this weekend? shouldnt that have been part of the analysis. a MAJOR part. an early check has your reccommendation down 7 % on the open. and that is the unleveraged play On Fri, Oct 30, 2015 at 11:27 AM, Vahe Stepanian < > wrote: Classification: Confidential Jeffrey — we're following up our phone calls earlier this week with two trade ideas: I) Buy Turkey 5y CDS — currently @ —253 • It seems Turkey has rallied recently on the back of the broader macro EM rally and FOMC dovishness, although fundamentally not much has changed in Turkey • General elections are taking place this weekend, which have created increased tension within Turkey and continue to generate headlines • Recent opinion polls still point to another hung parliament (additional details in attached DB research piece) • Outright short EM positions have cleaned up extensively and we believe it makes sense to slowly build out those positions • Cheap funding has resulted in large rise in corporate debt in Turkey, some of which has been funded in foreign currency • Turkey foreign reserves amongst lowest of EM countries, second only to Ukraine EFTA01131569