The noftington 4i05t September 27, 2012 Republicans deluded by `skewed' polls By Eugene Robinson Conservative activist circles are abuzz with a new conspiracy theory: Polls showing President Obama with a growing lead over Mitt Romney are deliberately being skewed by the Liberal Mainstream Media so Republicans will be disheartened and stay home on Election Day. This is denial and self-delusion but not of the harmless kind. It's a false narrative that encourages the Republican Party to take the wrong lessons from this election, no matter the outcome. The whole atmosphere surrounding the presidential race is different since the party conventions. The Obama campaign has begun warning supporters about the perils of overconfidence. Romney, meanwhile, wages a daily battle to keep the words "beleaguered" and "embattled" from latching onto his candidacy. The reason for the change is that polls indicate Obama's once-slim lead has grown beyond the margin of error. A Pew Research Center national poll last week showed Obama up by eight points. The most recent National Journal poll showed the president with a seven-point lead. On Wednesday, even the Gallup daily tracking poll — which has consistently measured the race as extremely close — had Obama up by six. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll, however, saw the race as still tied. Why the anomaly? Because the Rasmussen firm weights its sample to achieve what it believes to be a representative balance of Democrats and Republicans. While other pollsters also ask about party affiliation, most of them weight their samples to reflect the nation's demographic profile and do not seek a specific balance between R's and M. That's the discrepancy that gives rise to the conspiracy theories. The polls that show Obama with a substantial lead also show an electorate comprising substantially more Democrats than Republicans. It stands to reason, say the theorists, that these surveys would overestimate the vote for Obama a