DEWG RANGE ONSL I ZING • SO1. 1 NARI: • COMML, NICA I IONS INTERNAL CAMPAIGN MEMORANDUM Extremely Confidential To: President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Jeffery Epstein From: James P. McGee and Jason Cincotti, Newgrange Consulting Date: February 2, 2013 Re: Preliminary Issues Research and Baseline Polling Development EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This memorandum covers some of the preliminary issues research conducted by Newgrange Consulting on the Maldives. This issues information has been pulled together for the purpose of developing some of our initial baseline polling questions that we want to test for both President Waheed and his campaign. The issues research that has been developed for this memorandum also provides a very frank and honest look at the Maldives and the prevailing issues affecting the country today. Through a very honest review and assessment of these issues we are able to develop those baseline polling questions that will give us real insight into what voters currently think of President Waheed and his Administration as well as their opinions and preferences in the upcoming Presidential Election. Economy The 2011 protests were largely touched off by a stagnating economy. The country faces a large budget deficit ($300 million in 2010, or 15% of GDP— the fourth-worst percentage in the world), an even larger debt ($943 million), and an unemployment rate estimated at 14.5%. Tourism and fishing are Maldives's two biggest industries; however, fishing has experienced a sharp decline in recent years, and tourism took a dip during the international recession (though it has since rebounded). Maldives's reliance on these industries has led some to worry that its economy is dangerously susceptible to external shocks. Both tourism and fishing have also proven somewhat damaging to the island ecosystem. Newgrange Consulting Group • N2 Innovations • Newgrange Strategies • The Newgrange Foundation 43 Charles Street Suite 3 • Boston, MA 02114 • Ph