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EFTA01105086

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The ;New Rork E:inteo By PAUL KRUGMAN June 16, 2013 Fight the Future Last week the International Monetary Fund, whose normal role is that of stern disciplinarian to spendthrift governments, gave the United States some unusual advice. "Lighten up," urged the fund. "Enjoy life! Seize the day!" O.K., fund officials didn't use quite those words, but they came close, with an article in IMF Survey magazine titled "Ease Off Spending Cuts to Boost U.S. Recovery." In its more formal statement, the fund argued that the sequester and other forms of fiscal contraction will cut this year's U.S. growth rate by almost half, undermining what might otherwise have been a fairly vigorous recovery. And these spending cuts are both unwise and unnecessary. Unfortunately, the fund apparently couldn't bring itself to break completely with the austerity talk that is regarded as a badge of seriousness in the policy world. Even while urging us to run bigger deficits for the time being, Christine Lagarde, the fund's head, called on us to "hurry up with putting in place a medium-term road map to restore long-run fiscal sustainability." So here's my question: Why, exactly, do we need to hurry up? Is it urgent that we agree now on how we'll deal with fiscal issues of the 2020s, the 2030s and beyond? No, it isn't. And in practice, focusing on "long-run fiscal sustainability" — which usually ends up being mainly about "entitlement reform," a k a cuts to Social Security and other programs — isn't a way of being responsible. On the contrary, it's an excuse, a way to avoid dealing with the severe economic problems we face right now. What's the problem with focusing on the long run? Part of the answer — although arguably the least important part — is that the distant future is highly uncertain (surprise!) and that long-run fiscal projections should be seen mainly as an especially boring genre of science fiction. In particular, projections of huge future deficits are to a large

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