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EFTA01071128

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Eye on the Market I October 1.2012 J.P.Morgan Spain, France, the US and other places where Central Banks have propelled equities ahead of the facts on the ground Confidence Men. There are charts at the back showing the collapse in retail sales in Spain, along with surging unemployment, bankruptcies and non-performing bank loans. But to do justice to the situation, you've got to put it in context of the last 150 years. Spain's adventure in the Eurozone has sent it into an economic tailspin the likes of which have not been seen, with the exception of the Spanish Civil War, since the 19th century. At that time, the Spanish empire was at the tail end of its colonial decline', and was an under-regulated, agrarian, closed economy subject to frequent crises. The chart shows the details, highlighting the economic declines during revolutions, depressions and agricultural epidemics. Spain's recent decline has now matched them. Taking stock of the Euro on the Iberian Peninsula: Spain's economic decline In the context of the last 150 years Change in 5-year real Spanish GDP, percent, since 1850 60% - 50% - 40% - 30% - 20% - 10% - 0% -10% - -30% 1855 1867 1879 1891 1903 1915 1927 1939 1951 1963 1975 1987 1999 2011 1850-1900:Tail end olSpanish Empire; unregulated, agrarian and dosed economy of 19th century Spain Spanishcurrency, banking sector and stock market crisis; Impactof "Febre D'Or" equity speculation bubble and collapse in France ;Raw World grain invasion agrarian c isis Revolution: overthrow and exile of Queen Isabella II; Railway boom collapses, half of Spanish financial sector bankrupt Ar Pan-European banking crisis: Baring Brothers failure after Argentine govIdef ault; Phylloxera epidemic arrives in Spain Spanish Civil War Boom! bust resulting from Spaln's entry into the Eurozone Sources: 'Statistics on Ward Population, GDP and Per Canis GOP' .University of Groningen: Standard 8 Poor's; Conference Board; Universi

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