Eye on the Market I June 6.2011 J.P.Morgan Topics: US equity and labor markets; US Federal debt ceiling; Greece, Lysistrata and the EU bailouts; the investment implications of Germany's plan to decommission nuclear power and increase renewable energy; Gold Occam's Razor is the theory that all things being equal, you should stick towards simpler explanations before looking for complicated ones. Using this approach, I will try to answer some questions we have been receiving recently. Why are some analysts so optimistic about US equity markets in 2011 when US economic data has been weak? As shown below, there is plenty of optimism about S&P 500 returns this year across securities firm strategists'. The simplest explanations: because until recently, negative economic surprises had not affected equities (see 2nd chart); because they believe bad economic data are temporary; because they believe corporate profits will translate into higher employment and capital spending; because it is in their organic make-up to say so; and because as observers rather than money managers, there is less of a cost of being wrong. Our more cautious view acknowledges strong corporate profits, but incorporates 2 things profits are reliant on: (a] all-time lows in relative labor compensation, and large fiscal deficits required to sustain household spending; and [b] emerging economies that are running out of mom to keep real policy rates negative to grow (inflation is biting). 2011 S&P 500 targets by firm: hope springs eternal Index level 1550 1500 • 1450 • 9% over -nal/10 1400 •• 1111111111 1350 • 1300 • 1250 • 1200 •1 I § e OS , QP it c%* 42' eke t ° es, cy (4, co °\t, zic• t o Source: Bloomberg. Targets as of May 3,2011. S&P 500 finally reflecting US economic weakness Index 80 Positive surprises .20 70 Negative surprises •120 900 Jan•10 Apr•10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr•11 Source: Citigrotp, Bloomberg. Past performance not indicative of futur