From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen < Subject: IPI Middle East Update - March 6, 2014 Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2014 22:33:12 +0000 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update March 6, 2014 Algeria: On March 3rd, President Bouteflika announced his official candidacy for a fourth presidential term. Despite severe health problems—he has appeared only twice in cabinet meetings since his stroke last year and has not directly addressed the public since 2012, except for this brief and recent statement—many consider Bouteflika's fourth presidential victory a foregone conclusion. "Le Pouvoir," the powerful military-industrial complex behind all decision- making in Algeria, seems to have opted for a continuation of the status quo over any alternative. As expected, several opposition parties and politicians have said they will boycott, including ex-prime minister and much admired political figure Mouloud Hamrouche. However, in the lead-up to the April 17th presidential election, attention may be better placed on the scale and rhetoric of potential ground-level protests rather than elite political commentary. Protests against poor socioeconomic conditions may be accepted, but large-scale, anti-establishment messages decrying Bouteflika's presidency and the preservation of the political status quo at the cost of the country's citizenry most likely would not be. On the security front, the Algerian army continues to announce its successes against extremist elements, seizing more than 40 rockets and surface-to-air missiles smuggled by elements of Al Qaeda in the Maghreb in the province of Illizi near the Libyan border and destroying all Mali-bound weapons and equipment. Egypt: Ibrahim Mehleb was appointed prime minister of Egypt, following the resignation of the cabinet of Hazem Beblawi on February 24th. Mehleb was the Minister of Housing in the Beblawi government and is a former construction mogul who served briefly during the Mubarak era. What was initially int