From: "Barrett, Paul S" < To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: SX5E Div Update: Soc Gen Eliminates 2012 Dividend Date: Tue, 08 Nov 2011 14:51:22 +0000 Attachments: Euro Stoxx _ 50 _dividend_analysis_08nov 1 I.xls Inline-Images: Euro_Stoxx_50_dividend_analysis_08nov11(1).xls Euro STOXX 50 Bottom-up Dividend Valuation Soc Gen plans to not pay a dividend in 2012. Prior to today's announcement, Soc Gen was expected to contribute —2 points to 2012 dividends and - 2.5 points to 2013 dividends. Most other banks have reported already (namely Santander) but Telefonica reports on Friday and at 9-10% of dividend expectations is worth keeping an eye on even if it isn't a bank. The linked spreadsheet contains a bottom-up analysis of Euro STOXX 50 dividends for 2011-2014, incorporating Societe Generale's announcement this morning that it will not pay a dividend in 2012. Following lberdrola's announcement that its interim dividend will be paid in January and Unilever's announcement of its 3`cl interim dividend last week, all 2011 expected dividends have now been confirmed. In the spreadsheet, any cells shaded in light blue can be changed in order to perform a scenario analysis, by altering expectations for a single company or sector. Each sheet in the workbook contains a separate set of estimates: Bloomberg consensus, I/B/E/S, J .P. Morgan Research, and Consensus Bear (which aggregates the lowest dividend forecast among the Bloomberg consensus for each company). 160 - 150 - 140 - 130 - 120 - 110 - 100 - 90 - 80 - 70 BEst IBES —6— JPM Malyst o Consensus Bear --c—• Dividend Future a a a Implied vs. consensus and JPM ests. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Upside ! downside potential 2011 2012 2013 2014 BEst 12.5% 46.2% 64.4% IBES 13.6% 47.1% 66.5% JPM 11.8% 41.7% 65.4% Consensus Bear -6.4% 16.6% 21.8% Source: Equity Derivatives Strategy, Bloomberg, Dotostreom I've added what out financials (banks and insurance) would be and there's s