From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen < Subject: IPI Regional Insights - July 2013 Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2013 14:56:06 +0000 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Regional Insights July 2013 The International Peace Institute's (IPI) Regional Insights covers select regional and thematic developments based on information from a variety of sources. It draws on the research of IPI experts and is provided exclusively to major donors and members. Each monthly issue covers challenges and opportunities related to international peace, security, and development. Africa Mali: Twenty-eight candidates, including four former prime ministers and one woman, are running to succeed interim President Dioncounda Traor4 in Mali's elections on July 28th, which will most likely go to a run-off on August 11th. The elections will formalize Mali's return to democratic order about 18 months after the coup and rebel takeover of the north; they are also an essential anchor to France's military exit strategy and an important requirement for the United States and others to resume investment and aid. However, against a backdrop of continuing intercommunal tension and violence and the absence of government administration in former conflict zones, there are concerns that the elections risk upending the divided nation's fragile peace, particularly given instability in the rebel stronghold of Kidal and the other northern cities of Menaka, Gao, and Timbuktu. In addition, the results of rushed and ill-prepared elections risk being highly contested, and this could escalate into post-election violence, especially with the anticipated low turnout in the height of the rainy season and during Ramadan, and the challenges associated with the organization of the vote for about 500,000 internally displaced Malians. Moreover, the new United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization in Mali (MINUSMA) has not had sufficient time to establish itself and secure the most fragile regions. MINUSMA offi