From: Laurie Cameron To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: some thoughts Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 19:01:50 +0000 Good morning (good afternoon now...) I tried calling yesterday and this am to follow up on our conversation and here are a few thoughts that I have - you are right, French multinational revenue should never have made it to the short list of why I think that the EUR will fall next year. I do believe that - low (even if they stop falling) interest rates will dissuade speculative money from flowing into europe - lower oil/commodity prices will take away the usefulness of a strong EUR for managing oil import prices - growth is expected to be weak in 2014 (ECB forecast is for i.i% in 2014; .2% Q4 2013; and that foreign export growth altho it is small could help the euro area In the past 1.40-1.42 has been the level at which the european finance ministries/ECB express concern with EUR strength. I do think that it will fall 15 cents over the next year and a half, but it is not my favorite trade. I don't feel as strongly abt the EUR as I did the AUD and the JPY this year. As I write this, The headline has come out that the Bank of England has said that further GBP appreciation "may threaten recovery." Just wanted to pass that along. I think that GBP will trade most of next year in low 1.5Os, but this is not my favorite trade either. 2014 In general I look for opportunities in complacency, in opinions which are strongly assumed by the market and not questioned. Upset complacency often leads to a longer market move. I think that there is complacency in the oil markets. I think that the opportunity is to benefit from falling oil prices by shorting the Russian rouble. When I read Russian growth forecasts based on management of the government's budget and not on the price of oil and natural gas I worry that there is not enough concern for the impact that lower oil prices would have on the Russian economy,considering it is mos