From: Office of Tetje Rod-Larsen < Subject: IPI Middle East Update - January 6, 2014 Date: Mon, 06 Jan 2014 22:41:47 +0000 INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update January 6, 2014 Egypt: Egypt is approaching another decision point in its transition: a referendum on the recently drafted constitution on January 14th and 15th. The referendum represents the first major political proceeding and a test for the new military- backed government following the overthrow of Morsi in July 2013. The Egyptian street is politically charged: every street corner is littered with posters calling on citizens to "Vote Yes" for the constitution. While it is likely that the constitution will pass, its drafters are concerned about whether voter turnout will be sufficient in light of recent violence that might deter citizens from taking to the streets on polling day and disgruntlement with the constitutional draft itself—which, for hardline revolutionaries, still maintains the "deep state" status of the Egyptian armed forces. If the referendum passes, new dates will be set for both presidential and parliamentary elections in the coming months. As the process unfolds, Egypt has encountered waves of violence not seen since its war against Islamist groups in the 1990s. A particularly serious bombing in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura on December 24, 2013, killed over 14 people and injured hundreds. This prompted the government to list the Muslim Brotherhood as a "terrorist organization" (considered a strange move by some given that the more hardline, Sinai-based Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis claimed responsibility for the attack). The "terrorist" listing and crackdown is reminiscent of the Nasser era in the 1960s, which witnessed the execution of Brotherhood leader Sayyid Qutb. It has also inspired a witch-hunt in Egypt against members and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood: a new hotline was formed for citizens to "report" any such people. The backlash has resulted in